House Oversight Committee Recommends Restricting Federal Officials’ Prediction Market Trading

The committee's recommendation shifts the regulatory focus from platform enforcement to restricting the traders themselves, which would mark a structural change for prediction markets that have so far largely self-policed insider risk. The finding that most cases were flagged by the platforms, not regulators, cuts both ways: it credits Polymarket and Kalshi's monitoring while underlining how much detection depends on voluntary disclosure. Federal personnel and congressional staff are the immediate targets, but the precedent could extend to any government-adjacent contract. Whether Congress takes up legislation, and how platforms respond if it does, is the open question.