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Crypto Macro

Bitcoin Loss-Making Supply Now Exceeds Profitable Share, Analyst Says

The share of Bitcoin’s active supply held at a loss has surpassed the share in profit, analyst Darkfost said on November 14. Excluding coins unmoved for over 10 years, largely considered illiquid, fewer than 45% of supply is estimated to be in profit. Historically, a reading below 40% has tended to mark lows during market pullbacks, while a reading near 100% raises the risk of a reversal.

Original source

AI take

The signal here is less about the loss/profit flip itself than about how far the metric sits from the threshold the analyst frames as historically marking pullback lows. That gap matters because it defines whether this is a mid-cycle reset or something closer to capitulation territory, and the answer isn't yet visible in the data. For holders, the practical question is whether the sub-45% reading stabilizes or keeps sliding toward the level that has previously coincided with bottoms. Watch whether this becomes a floor or a waypoint.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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