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Macro

Warsh signals hawkish at Jackson Hole; rate hike odds jump

Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick for Fed chair, reiterated a firm 2% inflation target at Jackson Hole on Aug 28, saying data show no meaningful improvement. Markets repriced quickly, with prediction markets now implying about 56% odds of a 25bp hike on Sep 16, up from roughly 30%. Trump voiced respect for Warsh, signaling he remains an inside ally.

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