CITIC Securities: Coal price center to rise, 2026 gains seen

This projection hinges on a supply-side squeeze from stricter safety rules, not demand strength, making regulatory enforcement the key variable to track. The dividend growth suggests cash returns are becoming a structural support for valuations, which may attract income-focused capital. However, the forecast's credibility rests on whether the assumed price floor materializes and holds, as any slippage in supply discipline would undermine both profit and dividend estimates. The market's reaction to actual output data will test this thesis.