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Regulation Macro

China Issues Carbon Quota Allocation Plan for 2025-2026

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a plan allocating carbon emission allowances for the power sector in 2025-2026 and for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting in 2026. The scheme details allocation scope, calculation methods, issuance, and compliance procedures for the national carbon market.

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AI take

This allocation plan marks a concrete step in expanding China's national carbon market beyond power into heavy industry, which could materially reshape compliance costs for steel, cement, and aluminum producers. The detailed methodology signals a shift toward more standardized, enforceable emissions accounting across sectors. The key question is whether the allowance stringency will tighten over time, as that determines the market's pricing signal and its real impact on industrial decarbonization.

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