Global copper output set for first annual drop since 2017

The shift from expected growth to possible annual decline flips the supply narrative that markets have priced in, tightening the physical balance outlook. Double-digit drops at major producers point to operational, not just cyclical, constraints, which could persist beyond this year. For industrial buyers and copper-linked equities, the key question is whether this output weakness is a one-off or the start of a structural supply plateau. Watch next for whether other miners can offset these losses in H2, as that will determine if the annual decline materializes.