US Treasury Secretary Bessent sees oil falling to $40 after Iran conflict

This is a notable signal from a top US economic official, linking geopolitical risk to a sharp deflationary energy outlook. If such a drop materializes, it would directly counter the inflationary pressure that has been driving bond yields higher, potentially reshaping rate expectations. The comment is significant for energy markets and macro traders alike, as it frames the current oil spike as temporary and supply-driven. The open question is whether actual post-conflict supply dynamics align with this forecast, and how much weight markets give to official projections versus real-time inventories and OPEC+ decisions.