TREE NEWS update: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says there is a 60% chance SNARKs, fully homomorphic encryption, and indistinguishability obfuscation will each achieve under 10x computational cost overhead, measured by energy and amortized compute costs. He assigns a 33% probability that at least one method reaches near-zero overhead, with SNARKs most likely to hit single-digit overhead by the decade’s end.
Vitalik: SNARK could hit under 10x overhead this decade
This projection is significant because it quantifies the feasibility of advanced cryptographic primitives becoming practical for widespread use. If SNARKs achieve under 10x overhead, it could lower the barrier for privacy-preserving and verifiable computations, potentially impacting scalability solutions and data integrity in tokenized assets. The 60% probability suggests a credible pathway, but the 33% chance of near-zero overhead indicates uncertainty remains. What matters is whether real-world implementations can match these theoretical cost estimates, as energy and amortized compute costs are decisive factors for adoption.
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