TREE NEWS reports: Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen warns of a “fundamental disconnect” between limited expectations for Fed and ECB rate hikes and rising inflation pressures. He argues investors underestimate the magnitude of rate increases needed to curb inflation. Recent ISM data showed August services input prices surging to post-pandemic highs, when US CPI was at 5%.
Deutsche Bank Strategist: Traders Underestimate Rate Hikes
This warning from a major bank's strategist signals that market pricing for central bank tightening could be misaligned with underlying cost pressures. The ISM services input price surge, recalling when CPI was 5%, suggests inflation may be more persistent than current rate expectations imply. This matters for fixed-income traders and rate-sensitive assets, as a repricing of hike expectations could trigger volatility. The key question is whether upcoming inflation data confirms this disconnect, prompting a shift in market consensus.
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