Bolsonaro leads Lula in key Brazil runoff poll

This poll signals that the Brazilian runoff is effectively a coin flip, which has direct implications for market pricing of policy continuity and fiscal direction. A Bolsonaro lead within the margin of error means neither outcome is yet priced in with confidence, keeping volatility elevated across Brazilian assets. The key question is whether late shifts in undecided voters break the statistical tie, as that will determine the initial post-election market reaction.