Wells Fargo: Fed acts when rate odds exceed 69%

This framing suggests the Fed's reaction function is more binary than markets assume, with a clear threshold above which policy shifts become likely. The gap between 38% and 69% implies that current pricing, if it lands in that no-man's-land, offers little predictive signal for next week's decision. That makes Friday's CPI a pivotal catalyst, not just for the rate path but for how the market calibrates its own probability models. The key question is whether the data pushes pricing decisively past the historical trigger or leaves it in the historically inert zone, which would test the robustness of this 69% rule.