BoE’s Bailey: UK not on brink of recession

Bailey's tone shifts the immediate narrative away from contraction risk, but the qualifier 'weak by historical standards' keeps the door open for sluggish growth rather than a clean recovery. This matters for rate expectations, as a less dire outlook reduces the case for aggressive easing, though the market will weigh this against the broader data trajectory. The key tension is whether resilience holds up as prior tightening filters through, making the next few prints the real test.