Fed’s Waller signals rate hold if inflation cools

Waller's conditional stance shifts the Fed's near-term policy debate onto the upcoming inflation print, making that data the pivotal market catalyst. For rate-sensitive assets, the key is not just the headline number but whether it aligns with the 'progress' he demands to justify a pause. The softening from hawkish remarks to a data-dependent tone suggests internal flexibility, but it also raises the bar for any sustained dovish repricing. What matters next is whether August inflation confirms the disinflation trend or reignites the case for tightening, which would directly pressure risk assets and short-duration yields.