TREE NEWS reports: Bank of America strategists led by Benjamin Bowler said history shows macroeconomic risks need an extremely high bar to derail the tech-driven stock rally, even with long-term Treasury yields at multi-year highs and sticky inflation. They noted that in the late 1990s, the Nasdaq surged despite a 200-basis-point rise in 30-year yields and over 100 basis points of Fed hikes.
BofA: Tech rally to overcome high-rate headwinds
This historical framing suggests that for the current tech rally to break, the macro shock would need to exceed the severity of past yield and rate cycles—a high bar that may not be met by gradual inflation persistence. The implication is that equity market dynamics, particularly momentum and earnings expectations, can decouple from bond market signals for extended periods. The key variable to watch is whether any upcoming data or policy shift crosses that 'extremely high bar,' or if the market's tolerance for higher-for-longer rates erodes as the late-1990s analogy ages. For now, the takeaway is that macro headwinds alone may be insufficient to reverse tech leadership, but the comparison also underscores how regime shifts, when they come, can be abrupt.
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