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EIA raises 2026 Brent forecast to $91/bbl

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $91 per barrel from $87, and set 2027 at $74, up from $69. It projects U.S. oil output at 13.8 million bpd in 2026 and 14.3 million bpd in 2027. LNG exports are seen at 17.4 bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 bcf/d in 2027. The next STEO is due October 6.

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AI take

The EIA's upward revision for 2026 Brent, paired with a softer 2027 outlook, signals expectations of a near-term supply squeeze that eases later, which could influence hedging strategies for oil-linked assets. The production and LNG export figures suggest growing U.S. energy supply, potentially affecting global market balances and pricing dynamics beyond crude. The key watchpoint is whether these projections hold as the October STEO update rolls in, especially given the gap between the 2026 peak and 2027 normalization.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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