Tema Launches Prediction Market ETF with 15% in Kalshi, Polymarket

This product blurs the line between a thematic ETF and direct event-market exposure, signaling that fund issuers see prediction markets as a viable investable theme despite regulatory uncertainty around event contracts. The 15% allocation to private firms is notable because it offers indirect, illiquid exposure rather than the real-time outcomes of the platforms themselves, which may disappoint investors expecting event-linked returns. The 75 bp fee reflects the complexity and early-stage nature of this niche. What matters next is whether the SEC's pending decision on event contract ETFs pushes issuers toward more direct structures, and whether this fund attracts enough assets to justify similar thematic launches.