US-Iran maritime strikes escalate; Trump predicts end by Nov midterms

The denial of Iran's claimed strikes introduces a credibility gap that could amplify volatility, as market pricing may hinge on verifying actual maritime damage rather than official narratives. The EIA's upward revision signals that supply-side risk is now being treated as a structural factor, not a transient spike. Trump's timeline for resolution is a political projection, not a market signal, and the open question is whether the conflict's trajectory—and inventory draws—persist beyond that horizon. Watch for independent corroboration of attacks and any shifts in tanker insurance rates as leading indicators.