Oil tops $100 as Middle East tensions spike; Meta surges 6%

The oil spike above $100 signals a risk premium that could feed into inflation expectations, complicating the Fed's path just as the 10-year yield pushes to multi-year highs. The market's split reaction—stocks down broadly but Meta surging—highlights how geopolitical shocks are being filtered through sector-specific earnings narratives rather than uniformly repricing risk. The key tension to watch is whether the administration's stated timeline for ending the conflict aligns with actual escalation, as any sustained supply disruption would harden the inflationary backdrop that is already pressuring bond markets.