TREE NEWS update: China’s balance of payments is expected to show scale growth, structural optimization and overall balance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, State Administration of Foreign Exchange spokesperson and deputy administrator Li Bin said on September 10 at a State Council Information Office press conference. Li said multipolarity and economic globalization will remain the general trend, while protectionism, geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international financial markets will pose challenges to economic operations.
SAFE’s Li Bin: China’s Balance of Payments to See Scale Growth, Structural Optimization in 15th Five-Year Plan Period
The framing matters more than the forecast: a SAFE official is signaling that capital-flow management will be judged on composition and resilience, not just headline surpluses, as multipolarity reshapes trade and investment routes. The explicit nod to protectionism and geopolitical conflict as risks suggests cross-border flows are being planned around fragmentation rather than assuming continued globalization. Whether the structural-optimization language translates into concrete opening measures for foreign participation in Chinese assets is the open question worth tracking.
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