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Macro

Traders Fully Price In Fed Rate Hike in October After PPI Data

Traders have fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike in October following the release of PPI data. Markets have also completely priced in four Bank of England rate increases, the first such expectation since March. Traders expect the European Central Bank to raise rates by a further 75 basis points by October 2027.

Original source

AI take

The striking element is not the Fed call itself but the synchronized repricing across three major central banks, with the BoE expectation reaching a milestone not seen since March. That suggests traders are treating the PPI print as a signal about persistent inflation pressure rather than an isolated data point. The open question is whether this hawkish repricing holds if subsequent inflation or growth data soften, or whether it marks a broader shift in how markets read the policy path.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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