ECB Projects Euro at 1.16 vs Dollar Through 2028, Oil at $89.5 in 2026

These are the ECB's own technical assumptions, not forecasts, so their value lies in what they quietly lock in: a euro that stays strong against the dollar and an oil path that falls steadily after 2026. For euro-area inflation modeling, that combination does much of the work, easing imported energy costs while a firm currency caps price pressures. The open question is whether Brent actually tracks that decline, since any persistent upside would undercut the disinflation the ECB's projections rest on.