Morgan Stanley: China Battery Anti-Involution Shift to Favor CATL, Keeps 595 Yuan Target

The significance here is structural, not tactical: if capacity approvals are increasingly conditioned on utilization, the policy lever shifts from blanket expansion to rewarding operators who already run full, which entrenches incumbents and raises the bar for smaller cell makers. That matters most for second-tier Chinese battery producers whose growth plans depended on new lines, and for downstream buyers who may face a more concentrated supply base. The open question is whether the utilization-linked framework is formalized in actual approvals or remains a bank's read on policy intent.