IEA Monthly Report: Global Refinery Runs Seen Falling 2.6M bpd in 2026

A refinery-run forecast of this scale is really a demand signal in disguise: less crude being processed implies softer pull for the barrels that feed it, which matters to producers and to the freight and storage infrastructure that moves them. The IEA's view also sits upstream of refined-product markets, so any sustained shortfall would shape product availability rather than crude alone. The open question is whether the agency's projection holds as the year develops, or whether it is revised in subsequent monthly reports.