Economists See Fed Holding Rates Steady Into End-2027, Defying Market Bets

The gap between economist consensus and market pricing is the real story here, not the Fed's near-term path. If the surveyed view proves right, rate-sensitive sectors — including crypto and tokenized real assets — would face a longer stretch of stable policy than traders are currently positioning for, which cuts both ways for carry and leverage. The midterm-election angle also implies a political overlay on policy timing that markets may be underpricing. Whether the market reprices toward the economists, or the economists are simply behind the curve, is the open question.