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Crypto Macro

Bitcoin Up 22% and Gold 9.4% Since July 24 as Fed Rate Call Looms

Bitcoin has gained 22% and gold 9.4% since July 24, with US debt above $40 trillion and Treasury yields nearing 5.0%. Markets price roughly 3.1 quarter-point hikes over 24 months, with September odds near 50% after swinging between 58% and 42%. A hold at the September 16 FOMC meeting could open a relief rally in rate-sensitive assets, while a hike would raise the odds of another move in October.

Original source

AI take

The tandem move in bitcoin and gold says more about the macro backdrop than about either asset's own narrative: with debt above $40 trillion and yields pressing toward 5%, both are trading as hedges against fiscal and rate uncertainty rather than as rivals. The September FOMC is the pivot, and the market's own swing between 58% and 42% shows how little conviction sits behind the pricing. Whether a hold actually unlocks a relief rally in rate-sensitive assets, or a hike resets the whole calculus into October, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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