Treasury Shorts at Extreme Levels Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Positioning this one-sided into a Fed decision is the real story: when traders are already heavily short, the risk shifts from the direction of rates to the reaction function of the market itself. A hike that merely confirms inflation concerns could meet little fresh selling, while any signal short of that forces crowded shorts to unwind — a squeeze that would matter far beyond Treasuries. The open question is whether this bearish consensus is conviction or simply the path of least resistance into the decision.