Kalshi Odds of Fed Rate Hike Reach 87% Ahead of FOMC Decision

The scale of the repricing is the story: a market-implied probability moving from roughly 30% to 87% in under three weeks implies traders were caught badly offside on the policy path, not merely nudging expectations. With limited forward guidance signalled, the dot plot and the count of dissents carry outsized weight, since those become the primary signal for where the committee's median sits relative to a December move. Whether the December pricing holds after the projections are digested is the open question.