UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% in August, Five-Month High, Ahead of BoE Rate Decision

The significance lies less in the headline print, which matched expectations, than in the gap versus the Bank of England's own projection arriving one day before its decision. The drivers cited by the ONS — petrol linked to the Iran conflict and summer airfares — are largely external and seasonal, which complicates any read on underlying domestic pressure. Whether the Bank treats this as noise or as a signal that its projection path is too benign is the open question heading into the announcement.