Fed to Release FOMC Rate Decision and Economic Projections

The Summary of Economic Projections carries as much weight as the rate decision itself, since the dot plot and growth and inflation forecasts reveal how the committee frames the trade-off between easing and price stability. Chair Warsh's first press conference in this cycle is the real test of how the Fed's reaction function is being read, particularly for risk assets whose valuations lean on the path of policy. Whether the projections show a committee aligned on the near-term path, or one split enough to leave the timing of any move unresolved, is the open question markets will be working through once the statement and press conference are done.