Clarida: September FOMC Consensus Is Significant; Core PCE at 3.4% Slightly High

Clarida's read matters less as a forecast than as a signal about how the Fed's own internal debate is settling: a consensus, in his framing, is the precondition for action, not a reaction to data alone. The emphasis on whether the shock proves stubborn cuts against treating the current core PCE reading as a transient blip, which keeps the policy path data-dependent rather than pre-committed. The open question is whether that consensus holds once the next inflation prints land.