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Macro

ING Expects Fed and ECB to Each Hike Once More by December

ING expects both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates once more before the end of the year, likely in December, departing from its earlier forecast of unchanged rates. ING economists said Wednesday’s Fed meeting and last week’s ECB meeting showed the two central banks are unlikely to pursue the very accommodative policy previously expected, as both face energy-driven supply-side shocks and recall the sharp 2022 inflation surge and delayed policy response.

Original source

AI take

ING's revision matters because it signals that the energy-driven supply shock is being read as persistent rather than transitory, pushing two major central banks back toward tightening after a pause. That reassessment affects rate-sensitive sectors on both sides of the Atlantic, from credit to crypto, where liquidity expectations have driven much of this year's positioning. The open question is whether this becomes a broader consensus shift or stays an outlier call, and whether incoming inflation data validate the supply-side framing.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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