TREE NEWS reports: The Federal Reserve has formally begun its rate-hike cycle, with markets pricing in roughly three more increases this year as oil approaches $100 a barrel. BIT research notes the setup differs from 2022: markets had priced eight hikes before the Fed moved then versus about 3.8 now, and core CPI excluding energy is still falling. Historically, six months after a first hike gold rose 11.5% and bitcoin 7.9%.
Fed’s New Rate-Hike Cycle Seen Differently From 2022, BIT Research Says
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AI take
The key distinction is positioning: markets have already priced in most of this tightening, so the marginal surprise may be smaller than in 2022. That matters for crypto and gold, which historically have drawn support after a first hike, though the sample is thin and the current cycle is unfolding against an energy-driven inflation backdrop. Whether core CPI continues cooling while oil stays elevated is the tension worth watching.
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