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Macro

Wall Street Banks See ~$1 Trillion in Near-Term Treasury Bill Issuance

Wall Street banks expect the US to borrow about $1 trillion through short-term Treasury bills over the next year to meet rising government funding needs. Bank of America projects roughly $1.07 trillion in net new borrowing for the fiscal year ending September 2027, JPMorgan sees about $1.09 trillion in bill issuance in 2027, and Goldman Sachs estimates $961 billion. The shift comes as long-term US borrowing costs hit their highest since 2007.

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AI take

The signal here is composition, not size: heavy bill issuance alongside the highest long-term borrowing costs since 2007 suggests the Treasury is leaning on the front end rather than locking in elevated long-dated yields. That keeps a steady supply of short-duration collateral flowing into money markets, which matters for the cash-like instruments increasingly used as tokenized collateral and for the yield benchmarks those products track. Whether bill-heavy issuance persists if long-end costs ease is the open question worth watching.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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