TREE NEWS update: China’s National Immigration Administration forecasts a surge in border crossings during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Average daily crossings are expected to reach 2.25 million during the Mid-Autumn holiday and 2.15 million during the National Day holiday, with peak days on September 25, September 27, October 1, and October 4. Single-day crossings are projected to exceed 2.4 million at their highest.
China Border Crossings to Hit 2.4 Million Daily During Mid-Autumn and National Day Holidays
The scale of projected holiday travel points to a meaningful near-term lift in cross-border mobility, with the peak days clustering around late September and early October. For sectors tied to tourism, retail, and cross-border payments, the operational test is whether capacity and settlement rails can absorb the concentrated volume without friction. The open question is whether this holiday-driven surge reflects durable normalization in outbound and inbound flows or a seasonal spike that fades once the festival window closes.
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