Traders Fully Price In Four ECB Rate Hikes Through 2027

The signal here is about direction, not magnitude: a market that had been positioned for easing is now fully priced for tightening through 2027, which matters most for euro-denominated borrowers and anyone holding duration. Because no meeting dates or hike sizes are specified, the pricing says more about the ECB's perceived reaction function than about any single decision. Whether this repricing holds or unwinds on incoming data is the open question — and it sits awkwardly against the rate-cut expectations still embedded in other major markets.