Flash News

TREE NEWS reports: Gavekal Research economist Cedric Gemehl said the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields could widen to 150-300 basis points in an extreme scenario as next year’s presidential election approaches. The spread has already widened notably in recent months as an energy shock pushed rate-hike expectations higher and concerns over France’s political and fiscal outlook intensified. A clear narrowing is seen as unlikely given the low probability of a substantial improvement in France’s fiscal position.

TREE NEWS update: The UK government has renewed a contract with Airbus worth £190 million to support the Royal Air Force fleet. The deal covers continued support for RAF aircraft, with the government and the aerospace manufacturer extending their existing arrangement. No further terms were disclosed.

TREE NEWS reports: The US government has told Germany and France to draw on their emergency diesel reserves to ease global fuel prices, warning they could otherwise face a possible US diesel export ban. The request was conveyed to the two governments, which have not publicly responded. No figures for the size of the reserves or the timing of any US export restriction were given.

TREE NEWS reports: The UK’s FTSE 100 index fell 2% on Thursday, its largest single-day decline since May. The drop marks the blue-chip index’s steepest one-day loss in roughly six months, with no further details on the drivers of the move disclosed.

TREE NEWS update: French Prime Minister is seeking to add €43 billion in savings measures to the budget. The proposal would expand the government’s planned fiscal consolidation as it works to bring the deficit under control. No further details on the specific measures or timeline were provided.

TREE NEWS update: South Korea will issue 12 trillion won in government bonds in October, a reduction of 5 trillion won from its original plan. The revised issuance figure was announced for the month. No further details on the change were provided.

TREE NEWS reports: Japan is planning to spend $140 billion on building AI data centers, the Financial Times reported. The figure marks one of the largest single national commitments to AI computing infrastructure. No timeline, funding structure or specific project locations were disclosed in the report.

TREE NEWS update: South Korea said it will consider further reducing government bond issuance if necessary. The statement signals the government is prepared to adjust its debt funding plans in response to conditions, without specifying a timeframe or amount. No figure for the potential reduction was given.

TREE NEWS reports: China recorded 219 million cross-region passenger trips on Sept 30, the day before the National Day holiday, up 29.3% from the previous day but down 6.8% year-on-year, the Ministry of Transport said. Rail passenger volume reached 19.542 million trips, up 42.2% from the prior day and 5.8% higher than a year earlier.

TREE NEWS update: Sanofi and its US partner Regeneron said Thursday they will expand their collaboration to jointly develop four new drugs, in a deal worth up to $8 billion including milestone payments of as much as $7 billion. Sanofi will pay Regeneron a $1 billion upfront payment, with further payments tied to development, regulatory and commercial milestones. Sanofi shares rose 2% in early European trading.

TREE NEWS reports: Goldman Sachs has pushed its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike from October to December, after recent inflation data came in weaker than expected and cooled market bets on near-term tightening. The bank had expected another 25 basis point increase in October, but now says the Fed may need more time to assess economic data and could ultimately conclude no further hikes are needed.

TREE NEWS reports: The London Metal Exchange reported warehouse inventory changes across its metals contracts: zinc stocks rose 2,375 tonnes, while copper fell 1,325 tonnes, tin fell 5 tonnes, aluminium fell 750 tonnes, lead fell 750 tonnes and nickel fell 216 tonnes. The figures reflect daily movements in LME-registered warehouses.

TREE NEWS reports: Italy’s unemployment rate rose to 6.2% in August, up from 5.8% in July and above the 5.8% expected by economists. The reading marks a sharper-than-anticipated deterioration in the Italian labor market.

TREE NEWS reports: The eurozone’s September manufacturing PMI came in at a final reading of 52.9, above the 52.7 flash estimate and the 52.7 consensus forecast. The upward revision puts the bloc’s factory activity gauge further into expansion territory for the month.

TREE NEWS update: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the government will appropriately control total annual government bond issuance by taking both the initial budget and supplementary budgets into account. She made the remark as Tokyo weighs its debt funding plans. Takaichi also said foreign exchange markets are determined by a variety of factors.

TREE NEWS reports: Switzerland’s services Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 59.8 for September, up from a previous reading of 58.3. The reading signals continued expansion in the Swiss services sector.

TREE NEWS update: SoftBank Group said it completed the third and final $10 billion tranche of its additional investment in OpenAI through SoftBank Vision Fund 2, finishing the previously announced $30 billion commitment. Total investment in OpenAI now stands at $64.6 billion, giving SoftBank a stake of about 13%. The funds came from foreign-currency senior bonds SoftBank announced on September 24.

TREE NEWS reports: US stock index futures pared earlier gains, with Nasdaq futures up 0.46% while S&P 500 futures gave back their advance and Dow futures fell 0.54%. Europe’s Stoxx 50 index dropped 1.1%, touching its lowest level since June 12.

TREE NEWS reports: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose as much as 4 basis points to 5.33%, breaking its 2007 high, while the 30-year US yield reached its highest level since 2002. The 30-year UK gilt yield climbed 5 basis points to 6%, the highest since March 1998. Persistent inflation and expectations that rates will stay elevated drove the global bond selloff, with rising oil prices adding pressure.

TREE NEWS reports: The euro slipped 0.1% against the British pound to 0.85309, its weakest level since July 24. The move marks a fresh multi-week low for the single currency versus sterling.