Bitcoin’s Bull Market Confirmation: A Closer Look at the 365-Day Moving Average
Bitcoin has surged past $86,000, a level that has reignited debate over whether the cryptocurrency has officially entered a new bull market. A key technical indicator—the 365-day moving average—has been reclaimed, signaling that long-term momentum may be shifting in favor of the bulls. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net inflows, providing a steady stream of institutional capital. However, some traders remain cautious, warning that a sharp retracement to $88,000 could trigger a broader sell-off.
Industry Analysis: ETF Flows and Technical Signals
The 365-day moving average is often viewed as a dividing line between bear and bull cycles. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above this level suggests that the market structure has improved significantly since the 2022 bear market. ETF inflows have been a major driver, with billions of dollars flowing into funds like BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This institutional demand has helped absorb selling pressure and stabilize prices.
Yet, not all participants are convinced. Michael Burry, the hedge fund manager famous for betting against the housing market, has expanded his short positions in Micron, Nebius, Palantir, and a semiconductor ETF, rolling his SOXX put options to March 2027. While Burry’s bearish bets are not directly on Bitcoin, they reflect a broader skepticism about the sustainability of the tech-driven rally. In the crypto market, some traders are eyeing the $88,000 level as a potential trigger for a deeper correction, especially if ETF inflows slow.
Forward-Looking Perspective: Key Resistance and Market Sentiment
The next major resistance zone lies between $90,000 and $100,000. A decisive break above $100,000 could open the door to a new all-time high and further legitimize the bull market narrative. On the downside, a drop below the 365-day moving average would weaken the bullish case and could lead to a retest of lower support levels.
Market sentiment is also influenced by regional factors. South Korea’s markets are closed for the Chuseok holiday on Thursday and Friday, while China’s A-shares will pause on Friday. This reduced liquidity could exacerbate volatility. Overall, the crypto market is at a critical juncture, with technicals and fundamentals aligning in favor of the bulls, but risks remain. Investors should watch ETF flows, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical developments closely.
