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Macro

US September PCE inflation rises to 3.6% year-on-year, matching expectations

The US PCE price index rose 3.6% year-on-year in September, in line with the 3.6% forecast and up from 3.4% in the prior reading. The acceleration in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge comes as markets weigh the path of interest rates.

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AI take

The significance here is less the headline match than the direction: the Fed's preferred gauge moving up rather than down keeps the rate-path debate alive rather than settling it, which is what risk assets, including crypto and tokenized RWAs, are sensitive to. Markets that had priced a cooling trend now face a data point that complicates that narrative. The open question is whether this is a one-month uptick or the start of a firmer trend, and how Fed communication responds in the sessions ahead.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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