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Analysts lift 2027 copper price forecast, flag US stocks and AI demand caution

A survey of analysts raised the 2027 LME cash copper price forecast to $14,012 a tonne, up from an expected $13,647 in 2026 and $9,939 in 2025, while flagging caution over US inventories and AI-driven demand. The survey also projected a 125,000-tonne copper surplus in 2026, narrowing to 92,000 tonnes in 2027. Aluminium was forecast at $3,276 a tonne in 2026 and $3,001 in 2027.

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AI take

The upward revision sits awkwardly beside a projected surplus that only narrows modestly, suggesting analysts are pricing structural tightness rather than near-term scarcity. The flagged caution on US inventories and AI-driven demand cuts both ways: AI has become the bullish narrative for copper, so any softness in that demand story would undercut the very thesis lifting forecasts. Aluminium's declining path into 2027 points to a diverging outlook across the base metals complex rather than a uniform reflation. Whether the surplus keeps shrinking as projected, and whether US stockpiles stay a watchpoint, are the open questions.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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