AI Monetization Just Beginning: Liquidity Crunch to Ease Post-Nov 9, But Watch Anthropic’s Siphon
October’s crypto market pullback was largely driven by the U.S. Treasury’s decision to rebuild its General Account (TGA), draining liquidity from risk assets. A prominent crypto analyst, this technical factor will reverse after November 9, when the Treasury’s cash rebuild concludes and liquidity begins to flow back into markets. However, the analyst cautions that the recovery may be uneven, with AI-related investments—particularly those linked to Anthropic—potentially siphoning capital away from crypto.
The TGA Drain and Its Reversal
The U.S. Treasury’s TGA rebuild has acted as a liquidity vacuum, pulling dollars out of the banking system and tightening financial conditions. This mechanical drain has weighed on both traditional and digital assets. Post-November 9, the reversal of this process should provide a tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Qinbafrank notes that the liquidity release will be a key turning point for the market, but it may not immediately translate into a broad-based rally.
AI’s Insatiable Appetite for Capital
While liquidity returns, the analyst warns that the AI sector—exemplified by Anthropic’s massive fundraising and compute investments—could absorb a significant portion of available capital. AI commercialization is still in its early stages, and the race to build and deploy large language models requires enormous resources. This could create a crowding-out effect, delaying the crypto market’s recovery. Investors may favor AI equities and private deals over digital tokens in the near term.
Long-Term Bull Case: Compliance and RWA
Despite short-term headwinds, the long-term thesis for crypto remains intact. Qinbafrank highlights two structural drivers: compliant financing and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. As regulatory clarity improves, traditional financial institutions are increasingly exploring blockchain-based solutions for issuing and trading assets. The convergence of TradFi and DeFi through RWA tokenization could unlock trillions in value and bring sustained liquidity into the crypto ecosystem.
Forward Look
The coming weeks will test the market’s resilience. If liquidity returns as expected and AI does not completely dominate capital flows, crypto could stage a meaningful rebound. However, investors should monitor Treasury balances, AI funding rounds, and regulatory developments around RWA. The intersection of these forces will shape the next phase of the market cycle.
