Polymarket: OpenAI’s Astra Release Probability by Aug 31 Rises to 24%

Prediction markets are behaving like a real-time sentiment gauge here, and the 24% level still implies most traders see no imminent release. That gap between rising speculation and a sub-coinflip consensus is the interesting part: it suggests positioning is being driven by rumor flow rather than any confirmed signal. Whether this probability keeps climbing or fades is the open question, and it is worth watching as a read on how much credence the market gives launch chatter.