UBS Securities: A-shares Likely to Continue Steady Rebound This Year

The upgrade to 2026 profit forecasts signals institutional conviction in an earnings-led recovery, but the flagged risks reveal the fragility of that thesis. The 'redemption at breakeven' dynamic is particularly notable, as it could force fund managers to sell winning tech positions precisely when inflows are expected to support the market. For rate-sensitive valuations, the interplay between global yields and domestic liquidity will be the key swing factor. Whether the anticipated capital inflows materialize at scale, or are offset by geopolitical shocks, is the open question that will determine if the rebound broadens or remains concentrated.