Warsh signals hawkish at Jackson Hole; rate hike odds jump

This repricing signals the market is taking the Fed chair nominee's rhetoric at face value, anchoring expectations to an aggressive inflation fight rather than political pressure. The jump in hike odds suggests traders now view the 2% target as non-negotiable, which could tighten financial conditions across risk assets and RWA-linked yields if sustained. The open question is whether Warsh's hardline stance survives contact with actual data or Trump's political calculus, making the September meeting a key test of credibility versus policy independence.