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Macro

Fed quietly expands balance sheet with T-bill purchases, analysis shows

The Federal Reserve has been quietly conducting quantitative easing since February, buying $29 billion in Treasury bills in August and $344 billion over the past year. Balance sheet expansion continues despite net declines from MBS and longer-dated Treasury runoff. This year, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $90 billion, complicating inflation efforts.

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AI take

The Fed's quiet T-bill purchases signal a tactical shift in balance-sheet management, distinct from the QT narrative dominating headlines. This matters because it injects short-term liquidity without the duration risk of longer-dated buys, potentially easing funding pressures while masking net runoff. The $90 billion net expansion this year suggests a policy nuance that could complicate inflation control, making the split between bill purchases and runoff the key variable to watch. Whether this is a temporary liquidity backstop or a broader easing posture remains the open question for market participants tracking reserve levels and money market rates.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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