WPIC: Platinum market to see 8-tonne surplus in 2026

The second consecutive quarterly surplus signals a shift from the deficit narrative that has supported platinum's investment case, with ETF outflows acting as the primary swing factor rather than physical supply disruptions. The flat supply against a sharp demand drop points to weakness concentrated in investment demand, not industrial or automotive consumption, which frames the surplus as a capital-flow issue. What matters next is whether ETF outflows persist or reverse, as that will determine if the 2026 forecast holds or if the market rebalances through price discovery. For physical metal buyers and producers, the surplus implies looser near-term availability, but the sustainability of that surplus hinges on investor sentiment, not mine output.