Fed September Rate Hike Odds Rise to 78% on Prediction Markets

Prediction-market odds are a sentiment gauge, not a forecast, and the volume behind this contract matters more than the level itself: $145 million suggests positioning has become genuinely crowded rather than a thin book. That matters for anyone holding rate-sensitive exposure, because crowded odds can reprice fast if the data shifts before September. Whether the contract's implied probability keeps climbing or mean-reverts as the meeting approaches is the open question.