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HSBC Cuts 2026 and 2027 Gold Price Forecasts on Rate Hike, Oil Concerns

HSBC on Thursday lowered its gold price forecasts, citing expectations of further US interest rate hikes and rising oil prices that could pressure the metal in the near term. The bank now expects gold to average $4,490 an ounce in 2026, down from $4,560, and cut its 2027 average forecast to $4,825 from $4,925. HSBC economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December.

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AI take

HSBC's revision is a reminder that gold's near-term path is being framed less by safe-haven demand than by the macro trade-off between tighter US policy and energy-driven inflation. The cut is modest, but the direction matters: a bank explicitly tying its downgrade to further Fed hikes signals that rate expectations, not geopolitical risk, are the dominant variable for bullion right now. Whether the December hike HSBC anticipates actually materialises — and whether oil keeps climbing — is the open question for how much further those forecasts get revised.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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