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Macro

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.24%, 2-Year Falls 9.5bps

The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 4.42 basis points to 5.2407% in New York trading on Thursday, October 1, after earlier touching levels near the 2002 first-quarter peak of 5.4730%. The 2-year yield dropped 9.56 basis points to 4.7914%, pressured by a string of Federal Reserve officials’ remarks dimming prospects for an FOMC rate hike. The 30-year yield slipped 1.84 basis points to 5.6126%.

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AI take

The split matters more than the level: the front end rallied hard on dovish Fed commentary while the long end barely moved, so the curve is doing the talking. That pattern implies the market is repricing near-term policy risk, not long-run growth or inflation expectations, which is the more benign reading. The open question is whether the 2-year keeps leading the 10-year, or whether long-end supply and term premium concerns reassert themselves and drag the whole curve back toward the earlier peak.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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