BIS: 46.4% of AI Deal Value Tied to Supply Relationships

The BIS finding reframes AI deal activity as a partly closed loop: nearly half of disclosed inter-company investment value overlaps with supplier relationships, and AI firms fund each other more than half the time. That matters because circular financing can inflate apparent demand and valuation marks without an outside buyer, and the concentration of circular ties in compute and infrastructure suggests the risk sits closest to the capital-intensive layer. Whether this pattern reflects genuine strategic integration or reflexive self-dealing is the open question regulators and counterparties will be watching.