TREE NEWS reports: US nonfarm payrolls rose 1.4% year-on-year in September on an unadjusted basis, slowing from 1.5% growth in August. Unemployment benefit payments fell year-on-year. Seasonally adjusted after-tax wages for low-income households rose 4.5% year-on-year, down from 4.7% in August but still outpacing middle- and high-income households. The estimates are based on anonymized BofA consumer deposit data using a three-month moving average.
BofA Data Shows US September Nonfarm Payrolls Growth Slowing
The signal here is the direction of travel rather than the level: payroll growth decelerating alongside cooling wage gains for low-income households suggests a labor market losing momentum, though those wages still outpace higher earners. The falling benefit payments cut against a sharp deterioration narrative. Because this is deposit-based BofA data using a three-month average, it is a softer read than official statistics, so whether the deceleration persists in subsequent months is the open question.
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